Fantasy Football Week 7 Start/Sit: Rolling the dice on rookie running backs
Yahoo Sports
Posted On October 21, 2015
There’s plenty of “juice” sitting out on bye this week (Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Chicago). With some of the top fantasy weapons taking the week off, you’re likely going to have to dig deep with your fantasy lineups . To help your Week 7 cause (full season or daily), here’s a few players I expect to look better/worse than usual on Sunday/Monday.
STARTS
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ at NE – The thinking on “The Lorax” this week is that, of the quarterbacks that will take the field in Week 7, he has the 11th-best fantasy PPG clip of that group. He has talented (and towering) aerial options in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker that should easily outmatch the undersized (and underwhelming) Patriots corners. The Pats have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the QB position, so it’s easy to envision Fitzpatrick finishing among at least the top 10 fantasy signal callers this week.
RB – Melvin Gordon, SD vs. Oak – Honestly, this is almost purely a gut call. There’s nothing on paper that advocates for giving Gordon the green light this week. So I’m going against conventional wisdom here. I feel like this is the week we see Gordon finally break a big run. He’s been flirting with that a lot in the first six weeks. In fact, he’s second among running backs in Missed Tackles, tied with a few other running backs with names like Le’Veon Bell, Devonta Freeman, Chris Ivory, Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart – that’s impressive company. Gordon is easily the best pure runner the Chargers employ, but his fumbling issues have given the team pause. This is a make-good opportunity, and I think we see Gordon come out like a man on a mission in this contest.
RB – Matt Jones, Was vs TB – Here’s another hunch play. The matchup is good for the Redskins’ ground game, which has been anemic for the past month as it has faced four straight teams ranked among the nine stingiest in the league in terms of rush yards per game allowed (including the Jets and Atlanta, the two best). The Buccaneers rank 25th in rush yards allowed, so there’s some optimism that the Redskins will finally be able to run the ball. And Jones is back after sitting last week with a toe injury. Without him, Alfred Morris rushed 11 times for 21 yards against the Jets. It’s fair to say that Washington is likely to give Jones a sizeable share of the carry load this week (12-plus totes, at least), and he’ll also likely takeover the passing down role from Chris Thompson, who is dealing with a back injury – Thompson has caught at least six passes in three of his past four games. Jones is also the team’s preferred goal line back, so there should be a lot of ways for the rookie to make a fantasy impact this weekend.
WR – Rishard Matthews, Mia vs Hou – You may not know it, but Matthews is kind of a big deal in the Miami passing attack. And judging from his starting percentage in Yahoo leagues as of Friday (35%, 32nd highest among WRs), many of you haven’t clued in to the Dolphins’ most consistent aerial option. Matthews has delivered at least 8.5 fantasy points in four of his five games, and his three touchdowns and two 100-yard efforts have helped push him into the top 20 WRs ((No. 17) in terms of fantasy PPG (minimum 4 games). Houston has been middle of the pack in fantasy vs. the WR position, but it has treated secondary WR options very well (see Leonard Hankerson, Andre Johnson, Philly Brown, et al). After playing a season-high 63 snaps in Week 6, Matthews is well-entrenched opposite Jarvis Landry. He should be considered a borderline top 20 option at WR this week.
WR – Michael Crabtree, Oak at SD – Oakland comes off a bye this week with Raiders offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave talking about pumping up the volume on Crabtree’s workload. That’s great news if it comes to fruition this week as Crabtree is likely to draw Chargers corner Brandon Flowers. And, well, to be blunt, Flowers has stunk up the field this season. Assuming Chargers corner (the good one, real good) Jason Verrett plays, he’ll likely line up against Amari Cooper most of the time. That should pave the way for top 25 WR fantasy returns from Westbrook this week.
TE – Charles Clay, Buf vs Jac – This is the biggest no-brainer of my starts list this week. He’s No. 11 among tight ends in terms of percentage started in Yahoo leagues this week, but I’ve hiked him all the way up to No. 6, ahead of Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker, Jason Witten, Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron, all currently ahead of him in Start%. With no Sammy Watkins or Percy Harvin this week for the Bills, Clay is going to be a target monster. He’s drawn 13 targets in two of his past three games, and I would expect something in that range this week in London against a Jacksonville defense that need not be feared.
SITS
QB – Joe Flacco, Bal at Ari – Flacco might be a QB you’re forced to look at this week given that Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning are on bye. My advice would be to keep looking. Coming off a 343-yard, 2 TD performance in Week 6, not only is Flacco’s DFS price inflated, but he’s currently in back-end QB1 territory in terms of %Started for the week in Yahoo full-season leagues. Against an Arizona defense that has allowed the fourth-lowest QB Rating (72.3) and has produced the most interceptions in the league (11), I’m not optimistic about Flacco’s Week 7 returns.
RB – Chris Johnson, ARi vs Bal – Baltimore may be a disaster in pass defense, but it still has a pulse in run defense, allowing just 3.5 YPC to opposing backs. Outside of the Pittsburgh backfield (read: Le’Veon Bell), Baltimore has held opposing backfields to 74 rushing yards or less in each of the other five games it has played. As for Johnson, he is is coming off a game against Pittsburgh in which he rushed 14 times for just 40 yards (2.9 YPC). I’d try to avoid this matchup if possible.
RB – Jonathan Stewart, Car vs. Phi – Stewart was a surprise 2-TD performer at Seattle in Week 6. But I still don’t think he’s more than the third or fourth option when the Panthers get down in point-blank range. After all, we are talking about a guy that has scored on the ground in just four of his past 25 regular-season games. Counting on Stewart for touchdowns going forward is still a risky proposition. And counting on him for TDs or more than a marginal total of yards this week against a Philly run D that has yet to allow a RB touchdown or more than a 8.0 fantasy tally from an opposing RB this season is an even riskier proposition.
WR – Brandin Cooks, NO at Ind – What’s the upside here? Cooks has just four TDs in his 16-game career, and he’s never reached 8.0 fantasy points in the other 12 games. So it’s pretty much TD or bust for Cooks. And with the likelihood that he’ll draw Indy’s top corner, Vontae Davis, this week, I don’t love his odds of hitting pay dirt. Don’t be surprised if Cooks finishes well shy of the 8.0 mark once again.
WR – Jordan Matthews, Phi at Car – Matthews is on an anemic roll of four straight games in which he’s failed to reach 60 yards or find the end zone. And he’s sure to draw the attention of the league’s top cover corner (it’s not really much of an argument) Josh Norman this week. Norman has four interceptions and has generally made life miserable for the opposing QB every time he has chosen to throw his way. Given how erratic Sam Bradford has been, I’m guessing he won’t take too many shots at Norman this week. Figure another sub-60-yard, 0 TD effort from Matthews.
TE – Gary Barnidge, Cle at StL ($21) – Barnidge has been a monster the past month (the best TE in fantasy), so I understand if you don’t want to sit him this week. But if anybody is going to slow his roll, it’s the St. Louis Rams. The Rams have allowed just one TE touchdown in its past 15 games (Jimmy Graham, Week 1 of this season). They allowed two TE touchdowns last season and just four the season before that. I think it is fair to say that head coach Jeff Fisher has a grasp of how to shut down the TE spot. I have Barnidge ranked No. 8 at TE this week, which still makes him a viable TE1 roll of the dice. But I’d play Clay and even Delanie Walker ahead of him, and I’d think long and hard about Barnidge vs. guys like Julius Thomas, Jason Witten and Jordan Reed, too.
